 |
 |  |  |  |  |  |
photo: Toolbox Studios (US Map), Getty images (WASHINGTON, D.C., SEATTLE, NEW YORK, PORTLAND, AUSTIN) |
The New Boomtowns
BY SUE SHELLENBARGER
If you were a recent college graduate in a recovering economy launching a career, looking for a mate or both, where would you choose to live? We asked six experts which 10 cities will emerge as the hottest, hippest destinations for highly mobile, educated workers in their 20s when the U.S. economy gets moving again. Our panelists—demographers, economists, geographers and authors on urban issues—picked their cities based on the criteria they deem most important, from economic diversity to lifestyle. Big cities dominate the picks. While small, trendy cities once captivated youth, recession-scarred young people are more pragmatic, placing “greater emphasis on where high-quality, high-paying Where young adults settle is no small thing. People 18 to 29 are the most mobile age group, and their past migration patterns have defined the future of whole regions. Here’s a detailed look at the top finishers in our survey: 1. (Tie) Washington, D.C. Government hiring is projected to grow fast, and jobs in lobbying, aerospace, defense contracting and professional services are also a draw. Mr. DeVol calls Washington the national leader in high-tech services, surpassing Silicon Valley. Washington’s 4,000-plus nonprofits hold appeal for service-minded youth. And amid rising regulation of financial markets, says Barbara Lang, president of the DC Chamber of Commerce, “much of Wall Street is now moving to K Street,” the home of Washington’s lobbying industry.
David Gibson Jr., 25 years old, passed up finance jobs in Charlotte, New York and Atlanta to settle in Washington as a financial analyst for the Federal Reserve. Mr. Gibson, who has an M.B.A., figures the capital, with its many universities, can accommodate him for the long haul, enabling him to pursue a Ph.D. The downside: Not everyone sees the current federal hiring binge continuing. Says Steven Cochrane, managing director of Economy.com: “By next year, the government is going to be looking seriously at making cuts.” 1. (Tie) Seattle Former Ohio residents Lane Kuhlman, 26, and her husband, Matt Mansbach, 32, mulled several cities, including New York and Chicago, as Anchor to a region of innovative companies, Seattle is “a high-tech and lifestyle mecca,” author Richard Florida says. Mr. DeVol says the city’s high-tech sector, with 226,300 workers, is just slightly smaller than Silicon Valley’s. Seattle also has tens of thousands of jobs in music and interactive media. The downside: It rains half the time. 3. New York Reeling from the financial crisis, the nation’s largest city may seem an unlikely pick. But one reason New York’s unemployment rate is stuck at 10.3% is that hopeful job seekers continue to move there, city officials say. New York hasn’t lost as many financial-services jobs as predicted, says Deputy Mayor Robert Lieber. Residential growth in boroughs outside Manhattan, such as Brooklyn, is making the city marginally more affordable, and some panelists see housing prices falling more. Allison Bailey, a 2009 grad of Vermont’s Middlebury College, loves the city’s “European lifestyle,” she says. After studying in France, “I wanted to be in a ‘walking city’ like Paris.” Working lots of overtime as a litigation assistant for a law firm, she can manage the $1,450 monthly rent for her Manhattan studio, she says. And she is happy to leave behind the long car commutes of her native Houston. The downside: The city is still unaffordable for many, and the less-pricey suburbs can impose long commutes. 4. Portland, Ore. Los Angeles native Ryan O’Leary, 23, didn’t expect when he graduated from college with a journalism degree last year to be working construction at Mr. O’Leary, who found an apartment downtown, calls his move “the best decision I’ve made in a long time.” He loves the city’s nightlife and neighborhoods, and the city’s streetcars—one of which stops by his building—are a refreshing change from Los Angeles’s car culture. He continues to job-hunt in his field, public relations, on his days off. A symbol of “West Coast hipness,” Ms. Franklin says, Portland has continued to draw migrants through the recession. Portland has expanded mass transit and boasts sizeable electronics and activewear companies and green-energy ventures. Its quirky culture appeals to musicians and artists: The city has more than its share of oddball events, including an urban Iditarod (in which costumed revelers pull shopping carts). The downside: Portland has done better at promoting its quality of life than fostering job growth. “As nice as it may be to live in Portland,” says Economy.com’s Dr. Cochrane, “you can only sleep on someone’s couch for so long.” 5. Austin, Texas After a year spent traveling and working overseas in 2007, Olga Garcia, 26, and her boyfriend, Kevin Kurkjian, 27, decided to settle down in Austin. Both had heard from friends that Austin offered housing and career opportunities and a welcoming, youthful culture. “I had never heard anything bad about Austin,” says Ms. Garcia, a marketing consultant. A state capital and the site of a big University of Texas campus, Austin has become a gathering place for tech- and arts-conscious young adults. The downside: Some panelists have doubts about how strongly Austin will rebound after the recession. The rest of the best: 6. San Jose, Calif.: Silicon Valley’s combination of lively entrepreneurs and smart money will enable it to continue to draw the best and brightest. The region routinely attracts one-third of U.S. venture-capital spending, which should rejuvenate growth in hot fields, including alternative energy and life sciences, one panelist says. A free-fall in housing prices has made the area more affordable. The downside: High unemployment at 13%, and a high overall cost of living. 7. (Tie) Denver: After losing much of its luster in the last recession, Denver may be poised for a comeback. A center of high-tech, computer-systems design and telecom employment, Denver also offers natural beauty and access to outdoor sports. Housing prices and unemployment are relatively low now. The downside: Some panelists say the region’s vitality springs partly from neighboring Boulder, and other Western locales, such as Salt Lake City, may eclipse Denver. 7. (Tie) Raleigh-Durham, N.C.: A low cost of living and a highly educated population help make this Southern city appealing. The smallest city on our panelists’ list, Raleigh has job opportunities in tech and research and a strong university presence. It offers outdoor recreation and a lively music scene. The downside: The worst panelists could say is that it wouldn’t be seen as the hippest locale on the list. 9. Dallas: A diverse economy and cultural offerings put Dallas on the list. Its economy includes big telecom, electronics manufacturing, professional services and distribution sectors. Anchor of a region with many corporate headquarters, including Exxon Mobil, Dallas also lured the head offices of AT&T, bringing thousands of high-paying jobs. The downside: Dallas lacks a reputation as a youth mecca, and summers are hot. 10. (Tie) Chicago: An affordable big city with a rich cultural and night life, Chicago has a large, diverse economy. It lures many young job seekers seeking a post-college starting point. The 10. (Tie) Boston: A brainy city with an unmatched concentration of colleges and universities, Boston has enduring appeal. Boston is a world center of management consulting, with strong financial-services and high-tech sectors, and unemployment is relatively low at 8.9%. The downside: High housing prices and living costs. How We Selected Our Top-Rated Cities Naming the next wave of top cities for hip, highly mobile young adults is far from an exact science. It's more like a parlor game. The Wall Street Journal sought out six of the nation's leading experts to rank the 10 U.S. cities they see as most likely to emerge as "youth magnet" cities after the recession—popular target destinations among young, college-educated, often single people setting out to start a career, find a mate or both. The panelists, who were also asked to provide two or three reasons for their selections, were chosen based on their achievements in research, forecasting or authorship in the fields of geography, regional economics or demography. The methodology used to compile a final list is closer to a straw poll than a scientific study. Using criteria of their own choosing, experts provided ranked lists of picks. Composite rankings were then assigned to cities based on a point system: Each expert's No. 1 pick was given 10 points, second choices were given nine points and so on, with 10th-place picks receiving one point. Final rankings were determined by adding the total points each city received. The panelists: Steven Cochrane , managing director, Moody's Economy.com, head of the Web site's U.S. regional forecasting service and editor of its monthly Regional Financial Review. Ross DeVol , director of regional economics, the Milken Institute, a Santa Monica, Calif., nonprofit, and researcher on technology and its impact on regional and national economies. Richard Florida , author of "Who's Your City" and "The Rise of the Creative Class," and director of the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management. Rachel Franklin , senior lecturer, public policy, at the University of Maryland; former deputy director of the Association of American Geographers, and author of a 2003 Census Bureau report on migration patterns among young, educated workers. William Frey , demographer and senior fellow at the Metropolitan Policy Program of the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., and a research professor in population studies at the University of Michigan. David Plane , professor of geography and regional development, University of Arizona, Tucson; a senior editor of the Journal of Regional Science, and researcher on age-related factors in migration.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
